By Ilze Filks and Terje Solsvik
STOCKHOLM, Sept 11 (Reuters) – Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc holds a narrow lead ahead of Sunday’s parliamentary election, three opinion polls showed on Friday, two days before what is seen as a referendum on the incumbent right-wing government’s alliance with the far-right.
Across Europe, far-right parties have been on the rise, with Alternative for Germany, which opposes immigration and backs closer ties with Russia, winning a state election and Marine Le Pen leading polls for next year’s presidential vote in France.
In Sweden, Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson narrowly remains favourite to become prime minister again after four years in opposition and replace Ulf Kristersson of the centre-right Moderates.
Sweden’s four left-leaning parties between them have support of between 49.3% and 50.8%, giving them from 175 to 180 seats in the 349-seat parliament, according to the surveys conducted by the Ipsos, Demoskop and Indikator Opinion polling firms.
Backing for the coalition government and its far-right support party, the Sweden Democrats, stands at 47.6% to 49.0%, corresponding to between 169 and 174 seats, the polls released by Swedish Radio and dailies Aftonbladet and DN showed.
Kristersson has overseen a shift in Sweden away from the liberalism for which the country was once known, introducing some of Europe’s toughest policies on immigration.
Andersson’s bloc, which has pledged higher public spending, has retained a majority in every poll published this year, with most of the recent surveys pointing to a winning margin of around 10 seats.
But one of the surveys on Friday showed a margin of a single seat, mirroring Sweden’s close-fought election of 2022.
In mid-August, the centre-left held a 10 percentage point lead in several polls, which political scientists at the time said was a nearly insurmountable gap to bridge before election day.
Kristersson says that if his bloc wins, the Sweden Democrats, which has apologised for its past links with neo-Nazism, would join the government for the first time.
DIVIDED LEFT
The centre-left remains divided over which parties should be included in a government headed by the Social Democrats, with the Centre Party and the Left Party each ruling out taking part if the other is in.
The parties also differ on key policies, from a tax on billionaires to whether Sweden should build new nuclear reactors.
This may in turn lead to lengthy negotiations and the formation of a minority government including some, but not all, opposition parties if the left wins.
The rival blocs both support Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion as well as military rearmament at home and relief for households hit by the rising cost of living.
But while the campaign focused on a range of issues including Sweden’s welfare state, immigration and crime, there was no single dominant issue, experts said.
“Nothing has really stuck, it’s been sort of unsatisfactory in that sense,” said Nicholas Aylott, an associate professor at Sodertorn University.
The Social Democrats remain Sweden’s biggest single party with support between 27.4% and 29.7%, down from 30.3% in the 2022 vote, the polls show.
The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats party maintained its position as the governing bloc’s biggest group with 18.3% to 19.0% support, down from 20.5% since the 2022 election, the polls showed.
The party has been propping up the ruling coalition without being part of the cabinet.
(Reporting by Ilze Filks and Terje Solsvik, editing by Anna Ringstrom, Philippa Fletcher and Timothy Heritage)
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